Extended Season Speculation Purchasing Plan

DISCLAIMER: IGNORE THE POST BELOW; JUST LEAVING IT UP FOR POSTERITY. EXTENDED IS NOW CHANGED; EVERYTHING BEHIND TSP ROTATES OUT THIS MONTH, AND TSP BLOCK ROTATES OUT NEXT MONTH. BASICALLY EXTENDED IS BECOMING DOUBLE-UP OF STANDARDS. BUY FAERIES IF YOU CAN; ALL BETS ARE OFF ON ANYTHING ELSE.


Hi everyone,

So a lot of folks have been wanting to get in on this extended season speculation that I profit from every year. Whether you have $50 or $1000, you stand to make money if you buy extended staples prior to the January PTQ season. At that point, a lot of paper players rush to MTGO and buy their favorite deck in order to compete and gain QP, and to test for paper tournaments. This creates a swift climb where in about 2 weeks, prices go out of control. This year I've decided to go all in, spending either $5-7k and laying that out in Excel. To guide my purchases I'm going to be using the following purchasing plan. I'll buy ext staples whenever I see them at or under the listed buy price, and expect them to go to the estimated sell price. This is based on watching 2+ years of ext tournament swings. My est prices aren't inflated; the high-end projection is the peak that I saw them going for last January. My buy prices are at a reasonable level, although not the expected bottom for any given card - I'd rather get something for 6, and sell for 20, than wait around for something to hit 5, and have fewer to sell. The low of the estimated sell range is a very safe bet, the high has a precedent but I wouldn't bank on it.

Ok so let's take a look.

Name	Buy Price	Estimated Sell Range
Steam Vents	6	16-24
Stomping Grounds	8	18-25
Umezawa's Jitte	5	8-12
Hallowed Fountain	11	21-30
Breeding Pool	10	18-23
Godless Shrine	5.5	9-12
Tarmogoyf	25	45-65
Vendilion Clique	3.5	8-12
Extirpate	3	8-12
Summoner's Pact	4	8
Glimpse of Nature	1.5	4-8
Grove of Burnwillows	2	4-7
Magus of the Moon	3	7-10
Scapeshift	2	5-8
Cryptic Command	2.5	5-8
Bitterblossom	6	10-14
Glen Elendra Archmage	6	10-14
Leyline of the Void	5	8-12
Bridge from Below	6	9-12

This is more or less in descending order of confidence/focus. Notice that there are a lot of cards that are ext staples that I've left out: if they're still in standard, their prices are subject to increased supply, and thus I don't want to bank on them. If they're rotating in October I can't predict what that'll do to the price (Knight of the Reliquary). If they're in MRD block of course, they're rotating away so they're out. Cards like Dark Depths may eventually be strategized around (and the deck will be slower without moxes) so I find it an unreliable thing to speculate on: if I pay 20 for it and it doesn't do as well this year, maybe I only make $5 on that $20...when I could have put it into Stomping Grounds (Zoo will never die) and made $25+. Similarly I don't have tons of confidence in Scapeshift; however it's still on the list because it's in relatively short supply and also low-cost, so it's easy to stock up on. Even if it goes from 2-4, we've doubled in the same way that we would if a Godless Shrine went to 12. So it makes sense to diversify.

Hope this helps you guys as you consider what to buy for next year. Feel free to ask me questions on cards you're interested in that are or aren't on the list.